Випущено: 2013 Dec 30 1146 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
30 Dec 2013 | 138 | 007 |
31 Dec 2013 | 136 | 007 |
01 Jan 2014 | 134 | 020 |
Several C-class flares occurred since our last bulletin, all originating in NOAA AR 11936. The largest one was a C5.4 flare peaking at 19:30 UT on December 29. We expect more C-class flares in the coming 24h. There is also a good chance (around 50%) for an M-class flare. Due to its location close to the west limb and the fact that NOAA AR 11934 is still showing flux emergence and associated activity, we issue a warning condition for a proton event in case a strong flare occurs in this active region. CACTUS reported the detection of a partial halo CME at 07:12 UT on December 29. This CME originated near NOAA AR 11938. Coronagraph images from LASCO/C2 and STEREO-B/COR2 show that this is a very slow event (around 180 km/s) which is mostly southward directed. We do not expect geomagnetic effects from this eruption. The leading edge of a recurrent coronal hole has crossed the central meridian. This coronal hole has grown compared to the previous rotation. At that time, the associated fast wind stream caused a geomagnetic storm (Kp up to 6, K_Dourbes up to 5). The solar wind speed has decreased further to 300 km/s and the total strength of the magnetic field lies around 6 nT. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet. We expect them to remain so until late on January 1, when we foresee the arrival of a coronal hole wind stream. Minor storm conditions (K_Dourbes up to 5) are expected.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 10 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 137 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 007 |
AK Wingst | 005 |
Estimated Ap | 003 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 087 - Based on 29 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Немає |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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