Перегляд архіву субота, 11 січня 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Jan 11 1219 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jan 2014	165	017
12 Jan 2014	155	014
13 Jan 2014	150	005

Bulletin

Flaring activity was at C class level since our last bulletin. A C4.4 flare with a peak on January 11 at 8:35 UTC was the strongest event and originated from Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944). More C flares are expected within the next 48 hours. Chances for M flares are estimated at 40% and for X flares at 10%. The proton event for the >10MeV protons is, strictly speaking, still going on, but the proton flux is expected to be below the event threshold (10 pfu) within the next few hours. The solar wind speed had values between 400 and 450 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 7 nT, with a Bz- component between -4 to +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet (K=0 to 2). Quiet to active levels (K=0 to 4) are expected within the next few hours due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	206
10cm solar flux	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	103 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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