Випущено: 2014 Feb 08 1506 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
08 Feb 2014 | 175 | 025 |
09 Feb 2014 | 172 | 015 |
10 Feb 2014 | 167 | 006 |
The flaring activity of the Sun decreased significantly. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the C3.0 flare peaking yesterday at 14:52 UT in the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967), which maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Catania sunspot groups 27 and 36 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1974 respectively) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. We expect flaring activity at the C-level with isolated M-class flares. Due to position of the Catania sunspot groups 27 and 28 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1967 respectively) in the western hemisphere, a major CME in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning condition. After the arrival of an interplanetary shock yesterday (16:18 UT at ACE, 16:28 UT at SOHO), the Earth is inside a post-shock solar wind flow. Currently the solar wind speed is around 450 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is around 10 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz was fluctuating, and K index reached 4 during four intervals (as reported by IZMIRAN and NOAA). The arrival of the ICME-driven shock associated with the partial halo CME first detected by SOHO/LASCO at 16:36 UT on February 4 is possible later today. Intervals of active (K = 4) or, less likely, minor storm (K = 5) conditions are expected.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 07 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 122 |
10cm solar flux | 178 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 027 |
AK Wingst | 012 |
Estimated Ap | 011 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 112 - Based on 15 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Немає |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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