Випущено: 2014 Jun 15 1436 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
15 Jun 2014 | 148 | 008 |
16 Jun 2014 | 145 | 005 |
17 Jun 2014 | 142 | 007 |
Several C-class and two M-class flares were reported in last 24 hours. The strongest one was the impulsive M1.4 flare which peaked at 19:29 UT on June 14. The flare originated from the active region just behind the east solar limb and was associated with the type II radio burst (indicating the shock wave speed of about 400 km/s). The associated CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:48 UT and had projected plane of the sky speed of about 600 km/s. The angular width of the CME was about 100 degrees and the bulk of the CME mass was directed south-east from the Sun- Earth line, therefore we do not expect this CME to arrive at the Earth. The C9.0 flare (peaked at 20:17 UT) on June 13 which originated from the Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087) was associated with narrow CME first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 20:36 UT. We expect C-class and possibly also M-class flares in the coming hours. The solar wind speed is still about 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has presently value of about 5 nT. Late today we expect the arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave, associated with a partial halo CME from June 12. The arrival of the fast flow associated with the small low latitude coronal hole (between S20 and S40) which reached the central meridian late on June 12, might be expected early tomorrow (June 16). Arrival of both, CME-driven shock wave and the fast flow is possible but not very probable. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expect to remain so in the coming hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 056, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 153 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 008 |
AK Wingst | 010 |
Estimated Ap | 008 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 097 - Based on 18 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 | 1923 | 1929 | 1934 | ---- | M1.4 | --/---- | III/2 | ||
15 | 1110 | 1139 | 1150 | ---- | M1.1 | 76/2085 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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