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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2014 Aug 16 1320 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Aug 2014	116	006
17 Aug 2014	119	007
18 Aug 2014	119	007

Bulletin

Four C flares were registered during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was a C1.5 flare released by NOAA AR 2139 with peak time 21:54 UT on August 15. In the next 48 hours, eruptive conditions (C flaring) are expected, with a slight chance for M flares (30%), especially from beta-gamma regions NOAA AR 2144 and 2139. A large filament eruption took place near the central meridian around 16:54 UT on August 15, and an associated partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 starting around 18:00 UT. Preliminary analysis suggests an arrival time at Earth in the second half of August 19. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE decreased from about 360 to 280 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 4 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on August 16, 17 and 178.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 076, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Aug 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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