Випущено: 2014 Oct 30 1248 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
30 Oct 2014 | 130 | 010 |
31 Oct 2014 | 120 | 006 |
01 Nov 2014 | 120 | 005 |
Seven M-class flares and six C-class flares were counted since the last bulletin. An M3.5 flare was the largest flare, peaking at 1:35 UT, originating from Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). Catania group 88 is currently located at the west limb and although it is difficult to determine it's characteristics, the region seems to have shrinked. All other regions on the front side of the solar disk were relatively stable. Catania group 88 is still capable to produce large flares, mainly at the M-level, with a minor chance for another X-flare. We retain the warning condition for a proton event. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraphic imagery. The solar wind speed observed by ACE is low at around 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field has a magnitude of about 5 nT. A sector boundary crossing is observed at about 08:00 UT on October 30 as the phi angle changed from a mostly positive to negative orientation. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance for an isolated time slot of active conditions (K=4).
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 11 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 128 |
10cm solar flux | 150 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 013 |
AK Wingst | 008 |
Estimated Ap | 008 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 070 - Based on 12 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29 | 1424 | 1433 | 1451 | S16W81 | M1.4 | SF | 88/2192 | III/2 | |
29 | 1606 | 1620 | 1633 | ---- | M1.0 | 88/2192 | |||
29 | 1847 | 1850 | 1852 | ---- | M1.3 | 88/2192 | |||
29 | 2118 | 2122 | 2125 | ---- | M2.3 | --/---- | |||
30 | 0034 | 0037 | 0040 | ---- | M1.3 | --/---- | |||
30 | 0119 | 0135 | 0156 | ---- | M3.5 | --/---- | III/1 | ||
30 | 0417 | 0428 | 0436 | S16E62 | M1.2 | SF | --/---- |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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