Випущено: 2014 Nov 20 1156 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
20 Nov 2014 | 175 | 013 |
21 Nov 2014 | 180 | 012 |
22 Nov 2014 | 185 | 012 |
Three C-class flares were reported during the past 24 hours. The two weaker ones (C2.4 and C2.6 yesterday evening) were produced by the NOAA AR 2209. The strongest flare (C7.6 peaking at 06:41 UT today) was produced by a large unnumbered sunspot group that just appeared from behind the east limb. We expect this group to produce more C-class flares, possibly with an isolated M-class flare. NOAA AR 2209 started to decay in area and in number of sunspots, although it still maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect C-class flares from this region, with an M-class flare possible but unlikely. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude (6-7 nT). Due to this slight elevation of the IMF magnitude, one interval of K = 4 was reported by IZMIRAN and NOAA in the past 24 hours. The K-index measurements by Dourbes remained at the quiet to unsettled levels (K < 4). We expect quiet to unsettled (K < 4) geomagnetic conditions to persist, possibly with isolated intervals of active (K = 4) conditions.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 10 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 170 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 014 |
AK Wingst | 012 |
Estimated Ap | 010 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 058 - Based on 10 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Немає |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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