Випущено: 2014 Dec 06 1401 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
06 Dec 2014 | 134 | 015 |
07 Dec 2014 | 130 | 010 |
08 Dec 2014 | 128 | 005 |
The strongest flare in last 24 hours was the M1.5 flare (peaking at 12:25 UT) on December 5. The M-class flare was one more confined flare (SOHO/LASCO observations show data gap, however the SDO/AIA data do not show any on-disc signatures of the CME) which originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also isolated M-class flares from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which still maintains beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Since this active region is approaching to the west solar limb (about S20 W58), eruptions and flaring activity originating from this active region might be accompanied with the particle event. We maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is currently about 480 km/s. The slow increase of the solar wind speed and density, concurrent with the strong increase of interplanetary magnetic field has started early today. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is elevated during the last 5 hours and it amounts about 21 nT, indicating possible arrival of the ICME of still unclear solar origin. If the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turns to negative values we might expect active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 046, based on 16 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 137 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 016 |
AK Wingst | 012 |
Estimated Ap | 011 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 043 - Based on 09 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05 | 1133 | 1225 | 1247 | ---- | M1.5 | 24/2222 | CTM/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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