Перегляд архіву субота, 31 січня 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Jan 31 1226 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Jan 2015	156	014
01 Feb 2015	152	034
02 Feb 2015	148	019

Bulletin

Flaring activity declined with only a few low-level C-class flares, and the strongest event produced by NOAA 2277 at the beginning of the period (M2.4 peaking at 12:16UT). NOAA 2268 simplified significantly. NOAA 2277 kept most of its mixed magnetic polarity portions. No earth- directed CMEs have been observed. The x-ray background flux has decreased to the B6-level. The larger than 10 MeV flux is still enhanced, but started a gradual decline after 21:00UT. There remains a chance on an isolated M-class flare. Solar wind speed ranged mostly between 390 and 450 km/s. Bz varied between -7 and +7 nT, with a sustained negative period from 16:00 till 20:00UT. Unsettled to locally active (K Dourbes = 4) conditions were recorded between 18:00 and 24:00UT. The solar wind is expected to be further disturbed with the arrival of the HSS of the extension of a southern polar CH late on 31 January or on 01 February. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions, with a possibility of a minor geomagnetic storm.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	115 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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