Перегляд архіву понеділок, 2 березня 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Mar 02 1225 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Mar 2015	135	029
03 Mar 2015	138	021
04 Mar 2015	140	015

Bulletin

NOAA 2290, which is now near the NW solar limb, was responsible for most of the C-class flaring over the last 24 hours. It was also the source of 2 M1 flares (peaking resp. at 06:39 and 09:48UT). Proton flux levels stayed nominal. An actively flaring region is rounding the SE limb and produced two low-level C-class flares. NOAA 2292 has some mixed magnetic polarities but has remained quiet. A 300 degrees wide partial halo CME was detected by Cactus in LASCO/C2 imagery on 01 March 2015 at 12:36UT. With no obvious related signature on the Sun's earth facing side, this halo CME seems to have been a backside event. Several other CMEs have been recorded during the period, with the most prominent CMEs related to flaring activity from NOAA 2290. None of the observed CMEs has an Earth directed component. There's a good chance on continued M-class flaring from NOAA 2290 as it rotates further over the NW limb. Active (K=4 at Dourbes) to minor geomagnetic storming (Kp=5) conditions were recorded over the period as the Earth remained under the influence of the high speed stream from the southern polar CH. Solar wind speed reached maximum values near 700 km/s. IMF was directed towards the Sun, with Bz mostly negative and oscillating between -10 and +11 nT. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to active conditions, with a chance on a minor storming episode.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 043, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Mar 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	024
Estimated Ap	028
Estimated international sunspot number	052 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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