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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Apr 12 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Apr 2015	126	005
13 Apr 2015	129	007
14 Apr 2015	129	017

Bulletin

New beta-gamma region NOAA AR 2321 near the East limb released one M flare and five C flares, and beta-gamma region AR 2320 released one low C flare during the past 24 hours. The long duration M1.1 flare peaked at 9:50 UT on April 12, is still ongoing, and is associated to a dimming detected by Solar Demon. A CME near the Northeast is first visible on LASCO C2 images at 11:12 UT (after a data gap). This CME is probably associated to the M1.1 flare and from the limited number of images available at present it seems the CME will not be geoeffective. In the next 24 hours, M flares are possible, with a slight chance for an X flare, especially from AR 2321. During the past 24 hours, solar wind speed varied between 335 km/s and 400 km/s while the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) magnitude varied between 1 and 7 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic levels are expected on April 12, April 13, and the first half of April 14. Active to minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible in the second half of April 14, with the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a southerly coronal hole that was already present in the last two Carrington rotations and now extends to 20 degrees south of the solar equator.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Apr 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	038 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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