Випущено: 2015 May 14 1230 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
14 May 2015 | 153 | 014 |
15 May 2015 | 150 | 015 |
16 May 2015 | 148 | 015 |
The eruption of a filament near NOAA 2345 was accompanied by the strongest flaring event of the period, a C9.2 flare peaking on 13 May at 18:18UT. Coronagraphic imagery indicates that the bulk of the coronal mass ejection (CME) was directed to the north and away from Earth. However, difference imagery (CACTus) shows the faint outline of an asymmetric halo CME having a plane-of-the-sky speed of about 240 km/s. Provided this is not from a backside event, an impact from the shock is possible on 18 May, but the geomagnetic effects are expected to be limited. NOAA 2339 produced 2 low-level C-class flares near its leading sunspots, while the other regions were quiet. The other observed CMEs had no earth-directed component.
Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.
Solar wind speed slowly undulated around 700 km/s as a result of the high speed stream (HSS) from the recurrent coronal hole. Bz-values were small and varied mostly between -6 and +4 nT. Only quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist, with a chance on a minor storming episode.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 121, based on 21 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 200 |
10cm solar flux | 157 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 037 |
AK Wingst | 040 |
Estimated Ap | 042 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 122 - Based on 26 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Немає |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
Весь час у UTC
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