Перегляд архіву вівторок, 23 червня 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Jun 23 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Jun 2015	135	038
24 Jun 2015	130	038
25 Jun 2015	125	018

Bulletin

NOAA active region 2371 produced an M6.5 flare, peaking at 18:23 UT on June 22. An associated full halo CME erupted, with first measurement in LASCO C2 at 18:36 UT on June 22 and has a projected speed around 1000 km/s . A few filament eruptions were recorded in the Northwest quadrant, first a small one around 22:00 UT and then an extended one starting near 4:24 UT. Coronagraphic data indicate the occurrence of (mainly westward) CMEs, but incomplete data currently prohibit full analysis.

Proton levels have descended from the peak of 1000 pfu, despite some smaller peaks and are around 30 pfu at the moment. NOAA AR 2367 is now close to the West limb and could, in case of further eruptions, elevate the proton levels again. The proton levels might also be enhanced at the expected June 22 CME arrival. Flares at the M-level are expected, with some chance (15%) for a flare at the X-level.

A shock arrived to the ACE spacecraft at 18:01 UT on June 22, marking the expected arrival of the June 21 CME. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude jumped to 42 nT, with long periods of negative Bz down to -39 nT. Solar wind speeds reached values between 600 and 780 km/s. The IMF magnitude has declined to a current value of 12 nT.

Minor to severe geomagnetic conditions were recorded, with severe levels between 18 and 21 UT (on June 22) and between 3 and 6 UT (on June 23). The local K at Dourbes reached K=8 at 22 UT (on June 22). A decline to unsettled levels is expected for the coming hours. Further minor to major storm levels are expected, following the expected arrival of June 22 CME around 12:00 UT on June 24.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 042, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Jun 2015

Wolf number Catania	083
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	108
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	073
Estimated international sunspot number	047 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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