Перегляд архіву четвер, 27 серпня 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Aug 27 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 27 Aug 2015 until 29 Aug 2015
Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

10cm fluxAp
27 Aug 2015128037
28 Aug 2015130028
29 Aug 2015130015

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate with an M2.9 flare peaking 5:44 UT from region 2403. The region produced also a C9.5 flare earlier in the period, peaking at 13:53UT which was related with a dimming and filament eruptions to the North of the region. Corresponding ejecta are seen in SoHO/LASCO C2 data on the West limb around 20:36, but seem insignificant. Region 2403 remains complex and may be the source of further M-flaring with a slight chance for an X flare. Meanwhile two new regions are also rotating onto the Eastern hemisphere but their flaring potential appears low. The warning condition for proton events in relation to AR 2403 is maintained. No Earth directed CME's were observed in coronagraph data. Solar wind saw a further decline of the solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to around 360 km/s. The already elevated total magnetic field (10 nT at the start of the period) reached peaks of around 14nT this morning. Along with sustained periods of pronounced negative Bz this caused associated minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions since afternoon/late August 26. While local K Dourbes reported only active conditions to minor storm conditions, the planetary NOAA Kp reached moderate storm conditions (Kp=6) for the 3-6 and 6-9UT intervals. The origin of the elevated magnetic field values is not very clear. While a corotating interaction region (CIR) was expected later today, the signatures of magnetic field rotation, low temperatures and declining speed profile are more indicative of an ICME preceding the expected CIR. After the passage of the expected CIR solar wind speeds are expected to rise due to coronal hole high speed stream influence. Thus, solar wind conditions are in any case expected to remain elevated and active to moderate storm conditions are expected to continue over the next day subject to solar wind magnetic field orientation.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux126
AK Chambon La Forêt053
AK Wingst037
Estimated Ap036
Estimated international sunspot number044 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxКінецьLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
27044805440603S14W45M2.91N--/2403

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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