Перегляд архіву субота, 29 серпня 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Aug 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Aug 2015	110	016
30 Aug 2015	106	013
31 Aug 2015	102	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate with two M flares from region 2403 in adiition to several C flares from that region. An M2.2 flare peaked at 13:16UT and another M2.1 flare peaked at 19:03UT. Flaring at M level remains likely from this region with a possibility for an X flare. There remains also an associated risk for a proton event. Solar flaring activity will afterwards decrease as the region is about to round the West limb two days from now. No significant Earth directed CME's were recorded. Solar wind conditions indicated the arrival of the expected high speed stream influence. Solar wind speed increased from about 340 km/s at the start of the period to within the 420-480 km/s range. Total magnetic field first increased up to a peak of 17nT while a pronounced negative Bz persisted, before around 18:00UT a steady decrease towards presently 7-8nT set in along with a more variable Bz and a temperature increase. Quiet to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions were recorded. Local K Dourbes attained at most active levels (K=4 in the first halve of the period) while the planetary NOAA Kp reached 6 also in the first halve of the period. Solar wind speed is expected to first remain elevated before starting a decline towards nominal values while also the decrease in total magnetic field is expected to continue. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are thus expected with a possibility for episodes of active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 057, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	042
AK Wingst	034
Estimated Ap	038
Estimated international sunspot number	042 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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