Випущено: 2015 Sep 29 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
29 Sep 2015 | 120 | 010 |
30 Sep 2015 | 115 | 006 |
01 Oct 2015 | 105 | 007 |
Six active regions were identified on the solar disk today. Once more NOAA active regions (AR) 2422 and 2423 were the main players, producing nine M-class flares and several C-class flares. The largest one was a M7.6 flare, peaking at 14:58 UT. The flares were either impulsive or the accompanying CME was too weak and without an Earth-directed component to be of any influence for the Earth. NOAA 2422 has stretched in the E-W direction but has stopped growing in sunspot area. The region still is a beta-gamma-delta region. The evolution of NOAA 2423 is difficult to follow, but it still produced some flares. Additional M-class flares are expected, with 30% probability for an X-class flares. Due to the position of NOAA AR 2423, we retain the warning level for a potential proton event.
The Earth is still inside a slow (values between 340 and 380 km/s) solar wind flow and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remains around 5 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3) and are expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 111, based on 14 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 124 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 013 |
AK Wingst | 004 |
Estimated Ap | 003 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 146 - Based on 26 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 | 1301 | 1318 | 1329 | S22W24 | M1.1 | 1N | 39/2422 | ||
28 | 1453 | 1458 | 1503 | ---- | M7.6 | 100 | 39/2422 | ||
29 | 0311 | 0316 | 0331 | S08W78 | M1.2 | SF | 36/2423 | ||
29 | 0341 | 0343 | 0353 | S20W36 | M1.1 | SF | 39/2422 | ||
29 | 0505 | 0516 | 0523 | S21W37 | M2.9 | SF | 39/2422 | ||
29 | 0533 | 0537 | 0539 | S09W82 | M1.2 | SF | 36/2423 | ||
29 | 0553 | 0556 | 0604 | ---- | M1.0 | 39/2422 | |||
29 | 0639 | 0643 | 0646 | S20W34 | M1.4 | 1N | 39/2422 | ||
29 | 0846 | 0851 | 0855 | S10W77 | M1.3 | 1N | 36/2423 | ||
29 | 1109 | 1115 | 1120 | S10W79 | M1.6 | SF | 39/2422 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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