Випущено: 2015 Nov 04 1230 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
04 Nov 2015 | 123 | 034 |
05 Nov 2015 | 120 | 026 |
06 Nov 2015 | 118 | 010 |
NOAA 2445 developed a magnetic delta structure near the southern tip of the main trailing spot. It was the source of 8 C-class flares and an impulsive M1.9 flare peaking at 03:26UT, which was associated with a non earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). It also was the source of an M2.5 flare peaking at 12:03UT. More details in the next bulletin. NOAA 2443 continued its gradual decay, and is also losing its delta structure in the middle portion. It produced only 2 C-class flares, the strongest a C5.5 flare peaking at 19:09UT. A group of sunspots (Catania 65) is rounding the northeast limb, but has been relatively quiet so far. No earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare from active regions NOAA 2443 and NOAA 2445.
Earth remained under influence of the high speed stream (HSS) of the equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed undulated between 600 and 750 km/s, with a maximum speed near 770 km/s around 04:00UT. Bz varied between -10 and +10 nT, being mostly negative from 17:00UT till midnight, and again from 03:00UT till the end of the period. The planetary K index ranged from active to minor geomagnetic storming. The local K at Dourbes was unsettled to active, with a single minor storming episode at 08:00UT.
Unsettled to minor geomagnetic storming is expected, with a chance on a major (K = 6) storming episode in response to the continued effects from the HSS of the equatorial CH.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 111, based on 12 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 124 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 054 |
AK Wingst | 033 |
Estimated Ap | 034 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 082 - Based on 25 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04 | 0320 | 0326 | 0329 | N15W64 | M1.9 | 1N | 220 | 59/2445 | II/2 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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