Перегляд архіву вівторок, 10 листопада 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Nov 10 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Nov 2015	108	025
11 Nov 2015	109	012
12 Nov 2015	111	017

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours there has been 1 M-class flare and 2 C-class flares recorded. Most activity has occurred around Active Regions (AR) 2449 (Dai-Beta) and 2443 (Cso-Beta), with AR 2449 producing the largest flare, an M3.9 flare (S11E41) peaking at 13:12 UT on 2015-Nov-09. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was also enhanced by the M flare, and peaked around 3.5 pfu. ARs 2448 and 2451 (located near disk center) appear stable, with small amounts of flux emergence. ARs 2449 and 2450 have shown some evolution with flux emergence, and may produce more activity. The above-mentioned M3.9 flare had an associated partial CME, which was recorded by CACTUS at 14:00 UT on 2015-Nov-09. The CME had a velocity of 585 km/s +/- 247 km/s. Flaring is expected to continue at the B-class level with a reasonable possibility of C-class flares and a small possibility of an M-class flare.

The solar wind speed has increased over the past 24 hours, from around 500 km /s to 700 km /s. The total magnetic field has fluctuated between 5 nT and 10 nT, and the Bz component has oscillated between -10 nT and +10 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between quiet and active over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 3-5, local K Dourbes 2-4). With NOAA Kp remaining between Kp 4 and 5 levels throughout the morning (2015-Nov-10). A large (positive) coronal hole is currently centered at N30W45 and is the source of enhanced solar wind speeds. We're expected to pass out of the High Speed Stream (HSS) over the next 24 hours. The above-mentioned CME (14:00 UT on 2015-Nov-09) was directed mainly to the East, but the source region was located near solar disk centre, therefore a glancing blow may be encountered at L1 and Earth. Any Earth directed component can be expected to reach Earth around 2015-Nov-11 at 20:00 UT +/-12 hours, and may enhance geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 073, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	080
10cm solar flux	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	033
Estimated Ap	035
Estimated international sunspot number	065 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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