Перегляд архіву середа, 30 грудня 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2015 Dec 30 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Dec 2015	105	033
31 Dec 2015	105	085
01 Jan 2016	109	021

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with the strongest flare of the period only a C2.5 flare peaking at 20:19UT from region 2473. The region shows a generally decaying trend. Hence, C flares are expected over the next period with still a chance for an M flare. No CMEs have been detected in coronagraph data after the December 28 event. The >10Mev proton levels are further recovering from the slight increase on December 28/29. There remains a chance for a proton event should region 2473 show some further strong activity. Solar wind conditions were nominal with a further decrease of solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to around 370 km/s. Total magnetic field was mainly in the 2-6nT range. The magnetic field Bz component was initially mostly negative and later mostly positive, but never significantly below -5 nT. The magnetic field phi angle was in the outwards sector. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-2). Solar wind conditions are expected to become elevated later this afternoon with the expected arrival of the December 28 CME followed by a recovery towards ambient conditions, which may however be elevated due to the influence of a high speed stream from the low latititude extension of the (positive polarity) northern polar coronal hole. The CME arrival may cause up to major geomagnetic storming conditions later today and into tomorrow with decaying effects towards January 1, when isolated active periods do remain possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 030, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	105
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	051 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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