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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Jan 25 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Jan 2016	104	004
26 Jan 2016	103	009
27 Jan 2016	104	007

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. Several C-class flares have been detected. The most energetic flares were C1.4 class flares, produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 2488. There is currently a large polar coronal hole rotating into the Western hemisphere which may increase geo-activity over the coming days. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. A currently unnamed region on the East solar limb produced a small CME around 12:00 UT yesterday (24-Jan-2016), the CME is not believed to be geo-effective. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with the possibility of C-class flares, and the small region on the East limb producing further eruptions. The solar wind speed has been steadily decreasing over the past 24 hours from 500 km/s to 410 km/s. The total magnetic field strength remained around 5 nT. However, it peaked around 8 nT between 17:00 and 19:00 UT yesterday. The Bz has remained around 0 nT, but also fluctuated between 17:00 and 19:00 UT, reaching values of +5 and -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-4 (NOAA) and local K index 0-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours, with activity peaking (Kp = 4; K =4) around 19:00 UT, coinciding with the fluctuating field. A low latitude section of a large polar coronal hole has rotated into the Western hemisphere and the resulting high-speed stream (HSS) may enhance solar wind speeds and increase geo-activity early tomorrow morning.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 064, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Jan 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	104
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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