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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Feb 06 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Feb 2016	120	006
07 Feb 2016	120	002
08 Feb 2016	120	005

Bulletin

Solar activity was low during the past reporting period, with only two C1 flares. Flaring activity originated from NOAA active regions (AR) 2494, 2496 and 2491. NOAA AR 2494 lost its delta component, but still has the potential to produce multiple C-class flares. All other regions were mainly unchanged and simple.

A partial halo CME was observed with first measurements in SOHO-LASCO/C2 around 19h36 UT on February 5. The CME was rather faint, but with an estimated angular width of about 120 degrees. The CME is propagating in the Southwest direction with an estimated projected speed of 450 km/s. The CME is associated with the eruption of a small filament near S20W20 (SDO/AIA 304 and GONG images) and seems to have an Earth directed component. An Earth-directed component may arrive at February 9 around 7h UT. Before the above mentioned eruption, two other small filaments disappeared as well (starting around 3h UT near S00W40 and one around 18h25 UT near S00E05). These eruptions did only result in insignificant coronagraphic signatures. More flares at the C-level are expected.

The magnitude of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) returned to normal values around 5 nT. Solar wind speed is gradually decreasing with current values near 450 km/s.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K=1-2) to unsettled (K=3), both at the local (Dourbes) and global level (NOAA estimate), with one single time slot of active (K=4) levels at Dourbes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	108 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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