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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Feb 08 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Feb 2016	117	014
09 Feb 2016	116	021
10 Feb 2016	115	011

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity is currently on the low C-level. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours is the C1.6 flare peaking at 05:29 UT today in the NOAA AR 2492. NOAA AR 2495 exhibited strong emergence of the photospheric magnetic flux and may become more flare-productive, as well as NOAA AR 2494 that developed beta-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect flaring activity on the C-level in the coming hours, with an isolated M-class flare possible but unlikely. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 450 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated (5-8 nT) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The north-south IMF component Bz was consistently negative in the second half of yesterday and early today, so NOAA reported Kp = 5 and Dourbes reported K = 4 this morning. The IMF direction became more irregular since that time, so we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours. Tomorrow we expect the arrival of an ICME associated with the partial halo CME detected on the Sun on February 5, possibly resulting in active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 096, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	095 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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