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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 May 03 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 May 2016	092	016
04 May 2016	091	010
05 May 2016	090	010

Bulletin

Solar activity is low, with no C-class flares reported during last 24 hours. There are currently seven numbered sunspot groups visible on the solar disc, all having simple (alpha and beta) configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. However, we can still expect occasional C-class flares in the following 24 hours (probability is about 35 percent). The CME associated with the C3.5 flare observed on May 02, had angular width of about 90 degrees and was directed north-east from the Sun-Earth line, and it will therefore not arrive to the Earth. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours. The Earth is still inside the fast solar wind with the speed of about 570 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is rather stable during last 10 hours and it amounts 5 nT. Due to the negative value of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (down to -7 nT) and the fast solar wind speed (about 550 km/s), geomagnetic storm conditions (NOAA reported planetary K index to be 5 and local station at Dourbes reported K=4) were reported before the midnight on May 02. Small equatorial coronal hole has reached central meridian this morning. The associated fast solar wind can be expected at the Earth on May 06. Currently, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field amounts about 1 nT and the geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled. However, if the value of the Bz component decreases again, the intervals of the active and storm conditions are possible in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 02 May 2016

Wolf number Catania	140
10cm solar flux	090
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	028
Estimated Ap	031
Estimated international sunspot number	083 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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