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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 May 16 1250 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 May 2016	104	012
17 May 2016	100	012
18 May 2016	100	016

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been moderate. The largest flare was a C3.2 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2542 (Macintosh class:Cai; Mag. type:Beta) produced the largest flare, the C3.2 class flare, peaking at 16:03 UT yesterday. ARs 2544 (Dai; Beta-gamma) and 2545 (Cao; Beta) also produced a couple of B and C class flares. AR 2544 has exhibited significant flux emergence and cancellation in HMI observations, which may lead to further flares. A partial halo CME with angular width of 158 degrees and a speed 538 km/s (as measured by the CACTUS automated CME detection algorithm) was observed at 15:24 UT yesterday. The CME was produced from a filament eruption that occurred in the Western hemisphere (N10W62), near the solar limb. The eruption was associated with the above- mentioned C3.2 flare. The CME is largely orientated to the West, however, an Earth directed component may be expected to interact with the Earth system on 18-May-2016 at 16:30 UT +/- 12 hours. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours, with a small peak at 21:00 UT yesterday evening, which may have been related to the above mentioned CME. Solar activity is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a medium probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has increased from around 400 to 550 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 9 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -9 and +9 nT. The fluctuating magnetic field may lead to increased geo-activity over the coming day. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-4 (NOAA) and local K index 1-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A positive polar coronal hole is currently positioned in the Western hemisphere of the Sun and the resulting high-speed stream (HSS) may enhance solar wind speeds later today and as a consequence may increase geo-activity levels. The CME produced at 15:24 UT on 15-May-2016 may also increase geo-activity at the Earth around 16:30 UT (+/- 12 hours) on 18-May-2016.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 064, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 15 May 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	085 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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