Перегляд архіву понеділок, 5 вересня 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2016 Sep 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Sep 2016	093	014
06 Sep 2016	095	014
07 Sep 2016	095	006

Bulletin

NOAA 2585 shows signs of decay. It produced the only two flaring events of the period: a B9.2 flare peaking at 18:17UT, and a B6.4 at 09:12UT. A potentially active region is about to rotate over the east limb. A 40-degrees long filament in the northwest quadrant is quiet. A slow coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 imagery on 04 September starting at 13:36UT. It was most likely associated with a small reconnection event near S15W20 around 08:00UT. The CME seems to be mainly directed south of the ecliptic with no obvious earth-directed component.

C-class flares are possible, with a small chance on an isolated M-class event.

Solar wind parameters seem to indicate a weakening influence of the coronal hole (CH) high speed wind stream (HSS), with speed declining from initial values near 700 km/s to its current 600 km/s. Bz fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT, with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) directed away from the Sun (positive). Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were reported by Dourbes. Kp reached minor storm levels during the 18-21UT interval.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with still a small chance on a minor storming episode. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels over the next 2 days as the effects of the CH HSS are expected to further decline.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 031, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Sep 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	097
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	030
Estimated Ap	034
Estimated international sunspot number	049 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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