Перегляд архіву середа, 13 грудня 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2017 Dec 13 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Dec 2017	070	009
14 Dec 2017	070	012
15 Dec 2017	070	014

Bulletin

The Sun did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth- directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.

In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR varied between about 440 and 540 km/s, with current values around 475 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1 and 9 nT. Bz was around -5 nT between 15:45 and 17:15 UT on December 12. A high speed stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive in the second half of December 15 or early on December 16. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. The active interval (K Dourbes = 4) between 18h and 21h UT on December 12 was related to Bz values around -5 nT. Quiet to active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are possible on December 13 and 14 and the first half of December 15, with a chance for minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes < 6) are expected in the second half of December 15, with a chance for moderate geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Dec 2017

Wolf number Catania	014
10cm solar flux	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	013 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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