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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2018 Feb 21 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Feb 2018	068	008
22 Feb 2018	068	019
23 Feb 2018	068	015

Bulletin

There are no sunspot regions on the visible hemisphere of the Sun and flaring level is very low. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind density (recorded by DSCOVR) started rising at 03:50 UT on February 21, followed by a rise in the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) from 2 to 9 nT at 05:20 UT. The solar wind speed increased from about 350 to 400 km/s at 07:25 UT. These signs are indicative of a Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) leading a High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the negative polarity southern polar coronal hole that passed the central meridian a couple of days ago. The IMF was mainly directed towards the Sun and Bz was below -5 nT most of the time between 07:30 and 08:30 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be enhanced on February 21, 22 and 23, with speeds probably exceeding 500 km/s.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to active levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on February 21, 22 and 23, with a slight chance for minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Feb 2018

Wolf number Catania	000
10cm solar flux	068
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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