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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2018 Mar 30 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Mar 2018	072	008
31 Mar 2018	072	011
01 Apr 2018	072	007

Bulletin

Beta region NOAA AR 2703 has rotated from the East limb onto the visible hemisphere. This region produced several B flares and a C4.5 flare in the past 24 hours. The C4.5 flare peaked around 08:04 UT on March 30 and an associated Type II burst was observed in Humain around 8:10 UT. An associated CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 8:48 UT and is not expected to be geoeffective. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, mainly from AR 2703.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind near Earth showed the first signs of influence from the positive polarity, northern polar Coronal Hole (CH) wind stream around 6h UT on March 29, with increasing density and disturbed Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). Solar wind speed suddenly increased from about 380 to 450 km/s around 17:26 UT on March 29, with current values around 425 km/s. The IMF was predominantly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 10 nT. There were no prolonged intervals with Bz below -5 nT.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Under the influence of the wind stream from a positive polarity, northern polar coronal hole, active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 30 and 31. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on March 31.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Mar 2018

Wolf number Catania	000
10cm solar flux	069
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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