Перегляд архіву субота, 13 жовтня 2018

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2018 Oct 13 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Oct 2018	072	006
14 Oct 2018	072	029
15 Oct 2018	072	021

Bulletin

Beta region NOAA AR 2724 near the East limb has produced a B2.1 flare peaking at 01:50 UT on October 12, associated with a Type II radio burst observed at Learmonth, and a B7.1 flare peaking at 14:08 UT, associated with a Type II radio burst registered in Humain. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 35%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 400 to 340 km/s about in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 8 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth near the start of October 14, enhancing the solar wind conditions.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 13. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on October 14 and 15 due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, with a chance for minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) intervals.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 027, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Oct 2018

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	072
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	013 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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