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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2018 Dec 16 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Dec 2018	071	012
17 Dec 2018	070	014
18 Dec 2018	070	001

Bulletin

NOAA 2731 produced a B1.0 flare in the past 24 hours, and has decayed to an alpha region. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 300 and 350 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 4 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A weak solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity, equatorial-South polar coronal hole may arrive near Earth on December 16.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 1; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. There is a chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) on December 16 and 17, related to the possible arrival of a weak solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity, equatorial-South polar coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 18.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Dec 2018

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	007 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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