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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2019 May 13 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 May 2019	075	006
14 May 2019	075	007
15 May 2019	075	011

Bulletin

Alpha region NOAA 2741 produced a B4.0 flare preceded by a filament eruption at 22:50 UT on May 12. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from region 2741, is estimated at 35%.

A filament eruption near region 2741 was observed in AIA imagery, directly preceding the peak of the B4.0 flare. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery show a halo CME first observed in LASCO C2 at 20:36 on May 12. Based on STEREO COR2 A imagery, the CME speed is around 530 km/s. Since the filament eruption took place near the centre of the solar disc, we expect the ICME to arrive at Earth, in the second half of May 16.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 305 and 375 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 6 and 9 nT. Bz was below -5 nT between about 8:30 and 9:30 UT on May 13.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on May 13, 14 and the first half of May 15. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible in the second half of May 15, with a chance for minor strom intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 028, based on 24 stations.

Solar indices for 12 May 2019

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	076
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	027 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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