Перегляд архіву субота, 19 жовтня 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2019 Oct 19 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Oct 2019	066	007
20 Oct 2019	066	031
21 Oct 2019	066	022

Bulletin

The Sun is spotless and did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 1%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by ACE varied between about 310 and 390 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected from October 20 onwards, with the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to the equator.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 19. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 20 and 21 (with a chance for moderate storm intervals, K Dourbes = 6), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to the equator.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Oct 2019

Wolf number Catania	000
10cm solar flux	066
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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