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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2020 Nov 21 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Nov 2020	083	006
22 Nov 2020	087	022
23 Nov 2020	089	019

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels with two C-class flares registered in the past 24 hours. A C1 flare (peak at 18:44 UTC) was produced from an active region behind the east limb and a C1.9 flare with peak time at 17:03UTC on Nov 20th was produced by active region NOAA 2783 (Hsx/alpha). A new unnamed and unclassified active region has formed in the north-east quadrant, approximately at N32E35. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a 50% chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M class flare. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels. Enhancements of the > 2MeV electron flux and fluence are foreseen within the next 24 hours related to the expected arrival of a high speed stream originating from coronal hole CH 96.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed was relatively stable with maximal velocity remaining below 390 km/s (ACE and DSCOVR). The total magnetic field reached a maximal strength of 7 nT with Bz component varying between -6 nT and 6 nT. The phi angle showed long periods in the positive sectors and is currently fluctuating between the positive and negative sectors.

Geomagnetic activity was globally quiet with a single locally unsettled period when K Dourbes registered 3. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours due to the foreseen arrival of a high speed stream (HSS) originating from coronal hole CH 96 by the morning of Nov. 22nd. With the arrival of the HSS there are slight chances for a minor geomagnetic storm.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 021, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Nov 2020

Wolf number Catania	011
10cm solar flux	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	010 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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