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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Feb 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Feb 2021	073	019
14 Feb 2021	072	022
15 Feb 2021	073	013

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels over the past 24 hours. There were no active regions on the visible solar disc. The flaring activity was very low and it is expected to remain low in the next 24 hours.

A CME possibly associated with a prominence eruption was observed on the west limb around 18 UTC on Feb 12th. Further analysis is needed, but this CME seems unlikely to have an Earth-directed component. No other Earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained well under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to increase in the next 24 hours, probably still remaining under the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to increase to moderate levels within the next 48 hours with the early arrival of the HSS related to the extension of the southern polar coronal hole.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) got enhanced with the early arrival of the HSS related to the high latitude extension of the southern negative polarity polar coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Feb 11th. The total magnetic field reached 15 nT around 02:30 UTC on Feb 13th when the north-south component reached -14 nT. The solar wind speed was at background slow speed until 03:30 UTC and quickly increased to above 500 km/s around 04:00 UTC with a maximum value of 551 km/s since then.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled with a single period of locally active conditions with K Dourbes index reaching 4 due to the effect of the HSS which is currently affecting the Earth. Quiet to active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with a possibility for isolated intervals with minor geomagnetic storm. A low latitude extension of the norther positive polarity polar coronal hole has now crossed the central meridian. The HSS coming from this coronal hole might arrive to Earth within 2-3 days causing further geomagnetic disturbances.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Feb 2021

Wolf number Catania	000
10cm solar flux	072
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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