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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Feb 19 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Feb 2021	070	007
20 Feb 2021	071	021
21 Feb 2021	072	007

Bulletin

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The sunspot (Catania 72, NOAA-AR 2802) that emerged yesterday has already decayed. The new unipolar sunspot (Catania 73) is visible close to the east limb of the solar disc, however, no significant flaring activity was recorded. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours with small chances of C-class flare from the newly emerged sunspot.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections was observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged between 360 km/s and 390 km/s. The total magnetic field was below 5 nT, it then starts to increase on February 19 around 05:00 UTC up to the current value of 8 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -7.3 nT and 7.5 nT. The high-speed streams associated with the equatorial coronal hole (negative magnetic polarity and facing Earth on February 18) is expected to impact the solar wind environment near Earth in about 1-2 days.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. The conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet with possible short periods of unsettled conditions in response to the slightly enhancement of the interplanetary magnetic field and possible prolonged period of southward directed Bz component.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Feb 2021

Wolf number Catania	013
10cm solar flux	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	011 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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