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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Mar 06 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Mar 2021	073	018
07 Mar 2021	073	021
08 Mar 2021	073	012

Bulletin

NOAA region 2807 has shown further decay. The Sun did not produce any C flares during the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels until about 0h UTC on March 6, when it decreased to nominal levels. Nominal levels are expected in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. A return to nominal levels is expected in the next 24 hours.

The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) near Earth as registered by DSCOVR started increasing at 23:45 UTC on March 5 from about 3 nT to a maximum of about 12 nT, with current values around 6 nT. The IMF orientation switched from towards the Sun to away from the Sun around 2h UTC on March 6. Solar wind speed started increasing at 4:15 UTC on March 6 from about 390 km/s to a maximum of about 555 km/s, with current values around 520 km/s. This marks the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on March 1. Bz was below -5 nT between about 1:30 UTC and 2:15 UTC on March 6. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 0 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 6, 7 and 8, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) on March 6 and 7.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 006, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Mar 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	012 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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