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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Jul 03 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Jul 2021	093	014
04 Jul 2021	090	017
05 Jul 2021	088	017

Bulletin

An M2.7 flare peaking at 7:17UT originated from a new region that emerged in the NorthWest. The region grew rapidly but is close to the limb, preventing detailed analysis. The region will be turning over the limb in the next 24 hours but may initially still pose a risk for further flaring activity. NOAA region 2835 is in the process of loosing its trailing spots but also remains a strong candidate for further flaring activity. Both regions 2836 (unipolar) and 2837 (bipolar) are in decay. C flares are likely in the next 24 hours with also a possibility for another M flare remaining, both due to region 2835 as well as the new region 2838 as it is turning around the limb.

A Westbound CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images from around 15:36UT. It is related to a prominence eruption near the North West limb, and the CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Another filament eruption is visible in SDO AIA 304 images from around 21UT. The filament was stretching across the central meridian in the Northern hemisphere. We are awaiting further coronagraph data, to assess if it produced any Earth directed CME .

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu event threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and electron fluence is expected to remain at normal levels over the next days.

A sector boundary crossing into the sector with magnetic field towards the Sun occurred early in the period. It was followed by a somewhat unexpected renewed increase in Solar wind speed, reaching 500 km/s. Solar wind speed is meanwhile again in decrease as expected and is currently around 450 km/s. The total magnetic field was around a nominal 5nT. Solar wind speed is in general expected to decrease, but perturbations may occur today and tomorrow if the CME of June 29 arrives. On July 5 Solar wind speed may again increase in relation to the small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed central meridian yesterday.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with active periods possible, should the June 29 CME prove geoeffective.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 062, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Jul 2021

Wolf number Catania	052
10cm solar flux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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