Перегляд архіву субота, 7 серпня 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Aug 07 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Aug 2021	075	018
08 Aug 2021	076	015
09 Aug 2021	076	007

Bulletin

Regions NOAA 2850, 2851 and 2852 are all plages now. Region 2850 produced a few low B flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 25%, especially from region 2850 and the yet unnumbered region at the NE limb.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Around 04:30 UT on August 7, The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) as registered by DSCOVR changed orientation to away from the Sun, its magnitude increased from about 6 to 13 nT (current values are around 8 nT), and the solar wind speed started rising from about 320 km/s to current values of about 410 km/s. At around the same time, a drop in solar wind density was observed. This probably marks the arrival of the predicted high speed stream associated with the positive polarity northern polar crown coronal hole. Bz was below -5 nT most of the time between 14:00 UT on August 6 and 04:30 UT on August 7 and between 09:00 UT and 11:00 UT on August 7, with a minimal value of about -9 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible on August 7 and 8, and a return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on August 9.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on August 7 and 8 due to the arrival of an expected high speed stream, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). A return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) is expected on August 9.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Aug 2021

Wolf number Catania	012
10cm solar flux	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	008 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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