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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Oct 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Oct 2021	081	004
06 Oct 2021	080	004
07 Oct 2021	079	007

Bulletin

The solar activity was quiet over the past 24 hours, with the X-ray flux below C-level. The sunspot groups (Catania sunspot group 54, NOAA 2880) continued to decay and did not show any significant flaring activities. The returning sunspot groups (Catania sunspot group 58, NOAA 2882) remained unipolar with a magnetic field configuration Alpha and did not show any significant flaring activities. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next 24 hours with a very small chance of C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu and at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind speed regime. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (as observed by ACE and DSCOVR) showed an ambient background solar wind flow: The solar wind speed ranged from 280 km/s to 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 4.0 nT with its Bz components fluctuating between -3.3 nT and 0.9 nT. Nominal solar wind regime is expected to persist in the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours: Values of K-Dourbes and NOAA-Kp index between 1 and 3 were registered. Mostly quiet conditions with occasionally Unsettled conditions are expected as long as the Earth remains in slow solar wind speed regime.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 029, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Oct 2021

Wolf number Catania	029
10cm solar flux	084
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	031 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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