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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Oct 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Oct 2021	082	011
16 Oct 2021	082	013
17 Oct 2021	082	007

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 20%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels for a brief period in the past 24 hours, and can reach moderate levels again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 330 and 385 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between about 1 and 9 nT, and IMF orientation changed from towards the Sun to away from the Sun around 0h UT on October 15. There were no extended time intervals with Bz below -5 nT. A high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole may arrive at Earth in the second half of October 15 or on October 16, leading to enhanced solar wind levels.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. In the second half of October 15 and on October 16, active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible due to the possible arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels are expected on October 17.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Oct 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	083
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	018 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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