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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Oct 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Oct 2021	104	007
27 Oct 2021	095	007
28 Oct 2021	090	001

Bulletin

During the last 24 hours NOAA returning Active Region (AR) 2885 produced an M1 flare at 02:54 UT. Several C-class flares were also produced by the NOAA returning ARs 2883 and 2885, while NOAA AR 2887 and 2889 produced one C-class flare each. The remaining NOAA ARs 2888 and 2890 did not produced any noticeable activity. One or more M-class flares might erupt in the next 24 hours and several C-class flares are expected.

Several CMEs were detected by CACTus from SOHO/LASCO C-2 data during the last 24 hours. However, none of these are expected to be geo-effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind speed (as measured by DSCOVR) ranged between 310 to 370 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged from 1 nT to around 9 nT. The Bz varied between -5 and +6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp index 1-2) and locally mostly quiet, but temporarily reached moderate levels (K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 085, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Oct 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	101
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	064 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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