Перегляд архіву четвер, 27 січня 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jan 27 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Jan 2022	103	005
28 Jan 2022	104	007
29 Jan 2022	105	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was relatively quiet over the last 24 hours with a C1-class flare beside the number of sunspot groups visible on the disc. A new bipolar Catania sunspot group 19 (NOAA-AR 2938) has emerged close to the East limb. The other sunspot groups did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar activity is expected to remain slightly active with C-class flares in the next 24 hours and with a small probability of M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to be close to the threshold or just above in the next 24 hours due to the increase of the solar wind speed. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence dropped to nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to be at between nominal and is expected to be at between nominal and moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters measured in the Earth environment (by DSCOVR) remained enhanced: the solar wind speed continued to increase from about 450 km/s to 525 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field remained slightly elevated up to 7.6 nT, and its southward Bz-component fluctuated between -5.4 nT and 5.5 nT being manly positive. The enhanced measurements are associated with the effect from the solar high-speed stream connected to the Coronal Hole (positive magnetic polarity) that crossed the central meridian on January 21. The effect of the high-speed streams associated to the recurrent equatorial coronal hole facing Earth last January 26 (positive magnetic polarity) is expected to impact the solar wind conditions in about 2 days.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K_Bel 1-3) and at planetary levels (NOAA-Kp 1-3). Quiet geomagnetic conditions with unsettled periods are expected to continue in response to the high-speed streams from an equatorial Coronal Hole (that crossed the central meridian on January 21).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	083
10cm solar flux	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	071 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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