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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Feb 16 1244 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Feb 2022	114	003
17 Feb 2022	115	005
18 Feb 2022	118	004

Bulletin

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941) was most active, producing a M1.3 flare peaking at 18:15UT Feb 15. The region has now begun to rotate over the limb along with Catania group 36 (NOAA region 2947). Catania group 32 (NOAA region 2943) also produced some low level C-class flares. The remaining regions, including Catania group 33 (NOAA region 2946), Catania group 37 (NOAA region 2948) and Catania group 38 (NOAA region 2950), are small and relatively inactive. Two other small regions emerged over the period; Catania group 39 (NOAA region 2949, N25W10) and Catania group 40 (S24E07) but are not expected to produce any significant flaring activity. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare in the next 24 hours, particularly while Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941) remains just over the western limb.

A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO-C2 data from 22:12UT Feb 15. This was associated with an eruption that was visible over the north-east limb and is therefore not expected to influence Earth. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced over the past 24 hours, possibly related to the far side CME, but remained far below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The threshold is expected to be exceeded again today. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels during the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed continued to show a decreasing trend, with values decreasing from 420 km/s to 350 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 1 and 6nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to reflect a slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp 1-2 and local K Belgium 1-2). Quiet conditions with are expected over the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 095, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	109
10cm solar flux	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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