Перегляд архіву четвер, 31 березня 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Mar 31 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Mar 2022	151	044
01 Apr 2022	150	025
02 Apr 2022	150	017

Bulletin

Solar activity has been high over the past 24 hours. An interplay of events between region NOAA 2976 and 2975 was followed by an X1.3-class flare, peak time March 30th 17:37UT, region of origin 2975. This continues to be the most magnetically complex active region on disk. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares will most likely happen, M-class flares can be expected and X-ray flares cannot be excluded.

The X1.3-class flare was associated with a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in Stereo A Cor2 images on March 30th 18:23UT. A resulting coronal wave was visible. More will be reported but due to the location of the active region it is expected to be Earth directed. A second CME detected by Cactus on March 31st 03:36UT has been determined to be backsided. a filament eruption was noticed in former region 2979 on March 30th. Any possible CME influenced would be expected to be masked from the CME associated with the X1.3 flare.

The proton flux of >10MeV exceeded the 10pfu threshold on March 31st 06:20UT. This is associated with the possible ICME arrival of the CME on March 28th 11:29UT. It is expected to remain elevated from possible subsequent arrival of CME from March 28th 20:24UT. Then the CME from March 30th could have a further influence. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at those levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions reflect the possible arrival of the CME on March 28th 11:29UT, seen in a shock-like structure detected by DSCOVR and ACE on March 31st around 01:41UT. An increase of the magnetic field values to 20nT from March 31st 11:51UT could suggest the arrival of CME from March 28th 20:24UT, but this remains to be seen. Over the past 24 hours, Bz had values between -13 and +12 nT. The solar wind speed increased to 630 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle is varied. Over the next 24 hours we expect the solar wind to reflect enhanced conditions, as a response to the arrival of the two CMEs from Match 28th.

During the first part of the past 24 hours, quiet geomagnetic conditions were recorded. Since March 30th 21:00UT, active conditions have been registered, with a minor storm taking place March 31st 00:00-06:00UT (Kp=5) as a response to possible ICME arrival. Over the next 24 hours, active conditions will likely happen, with possibility of minor and a change of moderate storm conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 117, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	101 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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