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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Apr 03 1304 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Apr 2022	143	011
04 Apr 2022	142	008
05 Apr 2022	141	005

Bulletin

Solar activity has been moderate over the past 24 hours. The flare of greatest X-ray output has been the M4.3-class flare, peak time April 2nd 17:44UTC, possible active region (AR) of origin NOAA 2975. The newly emerged nearby AR 2984 was possibly the origin of an M3.9 class flare, peak time 13:55UTC. The complex of regions 2975, 2976, 2984 lies on the NW limb and should still be monitored for flaring activity. The complex of AR 2981 and 2978 (about central meridian, southern hemisphere) have also been the origin of C-class flaring and should be monitored. Newly emerged AR 2985 is present on SE. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares will most likely happen, M-class flares can be expected and X-ray flares cannot be excluded.

The M3.9-class flare was associated with a radio burst of type II at 13:23UTC and a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) detected by CACTus on April 2nd 13:48UTC. This is not believed to be Earth directed.

The proton flux of >10MeV exceeded the 10pfu threshold on April 2nd between 14:30UTC and 16:00UT, as a result of the M3.9 class flare and then again April 3rd 00:05-00:10UTC. Over the next 24 hours, it is expected to slowly decrease, but an event cannot be excluded taking into account the latest flaring activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu alert threshold on April 3rd 09:36UTC. It is expected to remain above threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was about moderate levels the past 24 hours. It is expected to be at moderate over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the magnetic field values ranged from 2 to 8nT, while Bz fluctuated between -5 and +4 nT. The solar wind speed decreased to 460 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately on the negative sector (towards the Sun). An equatorial, negative polarity coronal hole formed on the eastern hemisphere. Over the next 24 hours, we expect the solar wind to remain about those levels, due to waning high speed stream influence.

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, with two periods of active conditions April 02nd 18:00-21:00UTC (Kp=K_Bel=4) and April 03rd 00:00-03:00UTC (K_Bel=4). Over the next 24 hours, quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 109, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Apr 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	024
Estimated international sunspot number	109 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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