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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Apr 19 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Apr 2022	140	016
20 Apr 2022	145	016
21 Apr 2022	145	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate. Two M flares occurred. One peaking at M1.9 level at 17:24 UT from Catania sunspot group 76 (NOAA active region 2992) which is now rounding the west limb. The other was an M1.0 flare peaking at 4:50 UT this morning from Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA active region 2993) in the north-east. With Catania sunspot group 76 (NOAA active region 2992) now rounding the West limb, only the regions in the north-east are now of particular attention. Both Catania sunspot groups 81 and 82 (NOAA active region 2993 and 2994) are fairly large regions with a beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. Most of the flux emergence and mixed magnetic field is found in the region between the leading spots of both groups. There are two additional sunspot groups marked to the east of these regions with Catania sunspot group 84 the most significant. It is currently marked as unipolar but this remains to be confirmed as the region rotates further onto the disc.

The CME of the afternoon of April 17, propagating towards the south-west as reported yesterday is not expected to have an Earth directed component. No other Earth directed CMEs were identified in coronagraph images.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached briefly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold at the diurnal maximum. The 24h electron fluence reached moderate levels and is expected to be normal to moderate, following the high speed stream Solar wind conditions.

Solar wind showed a slow but steady decline of the high speed stream conditions. The solar wind velocity decreased from around 550km/s to under 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 5nT with a variable and unremarkable north-south component, and the orientation indicating connection to a positive polarity sector. There are no signs of a glancing blow of the CME of the morning of April 17 yet. This could still occur later today, but chances are low. A further steady return to slow solar wind conditions is expected.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. But they could reach active conditions if a glancing blow from the CME of the morning of April 17 would still occur.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 26 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Apr 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	096 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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