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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 May 20 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 May 2022	173	008
21 May 2022	171	006
22 May 2022	169	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with two M-class flares detected as originating from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3014 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania group 14). The first one was an M1 that took place at 19 May 15:16 UT and the second an M3 today at 07:49 UT. There were also five C-class flares, three of which originated from NOAA AR 3014. More C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 3014, and there is a good chance of one or more M-class flares.

Three Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) automatically detected by CACTus on 19 May at 12:24, 14:49, and 16:36 UT. However, there are judged to be back- sided and not geo-effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites) are typical of the slow SW regime, albeit with untypically high electron speed. The SW speed varied between 480 and 620 km/s in the last 24 hours. During the same period the total magnetic field varied between 4 and 11 nT, while its Bz component varied between -6 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly positive (directed away from the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain in the same regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally moderate (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 2-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain moderate during the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 133, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 19 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	198
10cm solar flux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	138 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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