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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jun 21 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Jun 2022	136	007
22 Jun 2022	135	007
23 Jun 2022	134	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with only C-class flares from different sunspot groups. Currently several sunspots are visible on the west hemisphere seen from Earth and only three of them show some flaring activity: Catania sunspots group 45 (NOAA active region 3030), Catania sunspots group 44 (NOAA active region 3031) and Catania sunspots group 53 (NOAA active region 3038). The larger flare was a C4.5-class flare from Catania sunspots group 45 (NOAA active region 3030) at 16:10 UTC.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold in response to the high solar wind speed associated with the Coronal Hole in the past days. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so as long as Earth remains under the influence of the solar wind associated with the coronal hole.

The solar wind parameters in Earth environment continued to be elevated due to the influence of the fast solar wind speed streams associated with the equatorial coronal hole (positive polarity) that reached the central meridian last week. During the first period, the solar wind speed was above 500 km/s, and more particularly on June 20 between 13:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC the passage of a solar wind structure (negative polarity) was observed at a speed of 600-653 km/s. From Jun 20 around 21:00 UTC, the solar wind speed started to decreased to reach the current value of 450-500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude showed elevated values around 9-10 nT in the beginning of the period, then decreased to values below 7 nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly negative and fluctuated between -6.25 nT and 4.5 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to return slowly to slow solar wind speed regime in the following days.

The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettle (NOAA Kp and local K-Belgium 1-3). Active conditions (K_BEL = 4) were observed from local stations in Belgium between 15:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on June 20 following the passage of the solar wind structure and the prolonged negative values of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible sporadic periods of unsettled conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Jun 2022

Wolf number Catania	130
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	099 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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