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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 15 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jul 2022	174	010
16 Jul 2022	180	012
17 Jul 2022	176	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares and an isolated M-flare observed. The largest flare observed was an M2.8 flare, peaking at 21:48 UT, originating from the newly numbered NOAA AR 3058, which had rotated over the east solar limb over the previous day. Catania sunspot group 85 (as yet unnumbered by NOAA) has also begun to rotate onto the disk. The flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels with C-class flares expected, M-class flares are probable and there is chance for an X-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently under the influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed was stable around 580 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 5 and 9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced for the next 24 hours due to the continued influence of the high-speed stream, which is expected to begin to gradually wane from July 16.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and Local K-Dourbes recorded values 1-2 and 1-3, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet over the next 24 hours with unsettled intervals possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 135, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	129 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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