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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 17 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jul 2022	174	009
18 Jul 2022	172	010
19 Jul 2022	170	015

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares and a single M-flare observed. The largest flare observed was an M1.4 flare, peaking at 15:39 UT, originating from NOAA AR 3055. The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels with C-class flares expected, M-class flares are possible and there is chance for an X-class flare.

A number of filaments have erupted over the past day. Most of these are not considered to be Earth directed. A filament in the south-east quadrant that began to erupt on July 16 around 21UT may have an Earth directed component and will be analysed further when coronagraph data become available. No other new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at nominal levels for the next 24 hours with a small chance of an enhancement due to the location of a number of large active regions on disk. The greater than 2MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu threshold and it is expected be above this threshold again over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 550 km/s. The total magnetic field was stable around 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected continue to be slightly enhanced over the next 24 hours, with a possible influence from the solar wind from the small negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on July 14. A further enhancement in the solar wind parameters is possible from late on July 19, due to the predicted arrival of a slow CME associated with a filament eruption on July 15.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and Local K-Dourbes recorded values 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet over the next 24 hours with unsettled intervals possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 147, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	158 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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